Democrats have spent months debating how and why they lost the 2024 election. But the full picture of what happened on Election Day is only now coming into view.
The most authoritative election analyses draw on a variety of different data sources, including large sample polling, precinct-level returns, and voter file data that shows definitively who did and did not vote. And those last figures became available only recently.
The Democratic firm Blue Rose Research recently synthesized such data into a unified account of Kamala Harris’s defeat. Its analysis will command a lot of attention. Few pollsters boast a larger data set than Blue Rose — the company conducted 26 million voter interviews in 2024. And the firm’s leader, David Shor, might be the most influential data scientist in the Democratic Party.